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What is the critical minerals shortage?
The critical minerals shortage is the growing gap between what our modern economy needs and what mines, refiners and recyclers can supply, made riskier because supply sits in a handful of countries. Specifically, S&P Global expects copper demand to hit 42 million tonnes by 2040, leaving a 10 million tonne shortfall and the IEA found China mined around 60% of the rare earths used in magnets in 2025 and refined 85% of them. These are just some quick examples. Let's get into it.
Critical minerals shortage by mineral
The table covers three minerals with figures that trace straight back to the original reports. The gap is not always a tonnage figure. For rare earths, the risk the IEA measures is concentration: one country controls most of the refining that turns ore into usable material.
| Mineral | Forecast gap | Supply concentration | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | Shortfall of 10 million tonnes a year by 2040, about 25% below projected demand of 42 million tonnes. This holds even if recycled scrap rises from 4 to 10 million tonnes. | Six countries produce roughly two-thirds of mined copper. China has about 40% of global smelting capacity and takes 66% of imported copper concentrate. | S&P Global, Copper in the Age of AI (report and press release) | 8 January 2026 |
| Rare earths | No single tonnage gap published. The IEA estimates China's rare earth export controls put about $6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk, across cars, high tech, defence and energy. | China mined around 60% of magnet rare earths in 2025 and refined 85% of them, down from 90% in 2024. The IEA expects its refining share to fall to 73% by 2035. | IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 | July 2026 |
| Silver | Deficit forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026. Demand has outstripped supply every year since 2021, making 2026 the sixth year running. | Recycling supplied 197.6 million ounces in 2025, a 12-year high, alongside 846.6 million ounces from mines. | The Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026 | 15 April 2026 |
Why copper matters here: S&P Global's study says that even with very aggressive gains in collection and processing, recycling could supply at best about a third of copper by 2040. Mines are still needed, but every tonne recovered from scrap narrows the gap. New mines take 17 years on average to go from discovery to production, according to the same study. Meanwhile, with the operational blueprint and knowhow of Majestic, we can activate a site in 2 to 3 years.
EU and UK critical minerals targets
The EU and UK have both set targets to cut reliance on a single supplier. The EU's are written into law. The UK's are government ambitions.
| Target | EU: Critical Raw Materials Act (by 2030) | UK: Vision 2035 Critical Minerals Strategy (by 2035) |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic extraction or production | 10% of annual consumption of strategic raw materials extracted in the EU | 10% of annual demand met by UK production, including at least 50,000 tonnes of lithium |
| Processing | 40% processed in the EU | No separate figure. Domestic processing and refining count towards the 10% |
| Recycling | 25% from EU recycling capacity | 20% of demand met through recycling |
| Single-country cap | No more than 65% of any strategic raw material from one non-EU country, at any processing stage | No more than 60% of UK demand for critical minerals, taken as a whole, from any one country |
| Legal status | Regulation (EU) 2024/1252, in force since 23 May 2024 | Strategy, not legally binding |
| Source | European Commission | GOV.UK; status per Benchmark Mineral Intelligence |
Key policy moves since 2025
| Date | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | The Commission selected 46 new Strategic Projects in 16 member states, from 102 applications. Nineteen are recycling projects. That took the EU portfolio to 93 projects inside the EU plus 13 abroad. Read our analysis. | European Commission |
| Dec 2025 | The EU launched its RESourceEU plan. By October 2026, the Commission said more than 2 billion euros in support had been mobilised since its launch, through the Innovation Fund, State aid and the European Investment Bank. | European Commission |
| 22 Nov 2025 | The UK published Vision 2035, setting its 10%, 20% and 60% targets, backed by up to 50 million pounds of new funding. | GOV.UK |
| 7 Nov 2025 | China suspended the rare earth export controls it announced in October 2025 for one year, until 10 November 2026. The suspended rules included ones reaching products made outside China that contain Chinese rare earths. | Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman, on MOFCOM Announcement No. 70 of 2025 |
E-waste: the critical minerals we throw away
Discarded electronics, one of Majestic's material streams, are one of the few sources of copper, silver, gold and palladium that already sit in Europe. Most of it is not being collected.
| Level | Figure | Source | Data year |
|---|---|---|---|
| World | 62 million tonnes of e-waste generated, up 82% since 2010 | UN Global E-waste Monitor 2024 (ITU and UNITAR) | 2022 |
| World | 22.3% documented as properly collected and recycled | UN Global E-waste Monitor 2024 | 2022 |
| World | 82 million tonnes a year expected by 2030 | UN Global E-waste Monitor 2024 | Forecast |
| World | Retired solar panels: 0.6 million tonnes, rising to an expected 2.4 million tonnes by 2030 | UN Global E-waste Monitor 2024 | 2022 and forecast |
| Europe | 42.8% formally collected and recycled, the highest rate of any region | UN Global E-waste Monitor 2024 | 2022 |
| EU | 12.3 kg of e-waste collected per person, against 32.4 kg of new equipment sold per person | Eurostat | 2024 |
| EU | 37.5% collection rate against a legal target of 65%. Only Bulgaria, Latvia and Slovakia met it. | Eurostat | 2023 |
| UK | 880 million unused electrical items held in homes, about 30 per household | Material Focus | 2021 |
| UK | 103,000 tonnes of electricals thrown away instead of recycled | Material Focus | 2021 |
| UK | 187,000 tonnes exported illegally and 156,000 tonnes stolen | Material Focus | 2021 |
| UK | 498,000 tonnes sent to approved electrical recyclers | Material Focus | 2021 |
Related reading
- EU strategic projects 2026: what they mean for recycling: what the Commission's 9 October selection of 46 projects means for recyclers.
Urban mining: recovering critical minerals from e-waste
Urban mining means recovering metals from products that have already been made and thrown away, rather than digging new ore out of the ground.
Majestic Corporation plc (AQSE: MCJ) operates a 50,000 sq ft facility in Wrexham, supported by its subsidiary Telecycle Europe. The site handles several material categories, including waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). Materials approved for the site include computers, power supplies, modems, copper wire, small household appliances and solar panel film. Material is sorted, dismantled and prepared at Wrexham, then sent on to specialist smelters and refiners, which recover metals such as copper, gold, silver and palladium.
Have WEEE, IT equipment or end-of-life solar panels to recycle? Contact the Majestic team to talk more.
Critical minerals shortage: frequently asked questions
Which minerals are most at risk?
The IEA's 2026 outlook ranks gallium, magnet rare earths, yttrium, graphite, tungsten, germanium, tellurium and cobalt among the highest-risk materials. It also expects supply gaps for copper and lithium to persist through 2035, even after counting recycling.
Why does China matter so much?
China leads the refining stage for most critical minerals. On top of that, ore mined elsewhere often still travels to China to be processed.
Can recycling close the gap?
Not on its own. S&P Global expects recycled copper scrap to more than double, from 4 to 10 million tonnes by 2040, and still finds a 10 million tonne shortfall. Recycling reduces the gap and the reliance on imports. That is why the EU wants 25% of its strategic raw materials to come from recycling by 2030, and the UK 20% by 2035.
What are the EU and UK targets?
By 2030, the EU aims to extract 10%, process 40% and recycle 25% of its yearly use of strategic raw materials, with no more than 65% from any one outside country. By 2035, the UK aims for 10% domestic production, 20% recycling and no more than 60% of its overall demand from one country.
How much e-waste gets recycled?
Worldwide, 22.3% of the 62 million tonnes generated in 2022 was documented as properly collected and recycled, according to the UN. The EU collected 37.5% in 2023, against a 65% target.
Majestic Corporation plc is a global urban miner traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange (AQSE: MCJ) and quoted on the OTCQB in the US. Announcements, results and investor information are available on our investor centre.